Charlottesville Virginia Real Estate Market Prediction: January 2023

Charlottesville Virginia Real Estate Market Prediction: January 2023

Charlottesville virginia real estate market predictions: much like a sine curve.

It’s easy to look back at market trends and graph exactly how the last 10 years played out. It was a typical first half of a sine curve with a slow but steady start, (post recession), a nice boost in activity as a hot buyers market ate up well priced inventory, (Obama years), and then a wild ride through 2021 as scarce inventory and crazy low interest rates met a surge in demand due to Covid and a hot economy that sent prices through the roof and disappointed buyers gasping for air.

Interest rates have been a wild ride for the last couple of years.

So, here we are, interest rates for a 30 year fixed are about 7.25 today. The change sheet had lots of expired listings, a few price reductions listed and we’re asking each other, What now?

I think it’s safe to say that the boom has happened and we are sitting at the top of the curve right now. Buyers will have to adjust their thinking in terms of loan affordability. Sellers haven’t really felt a slow down yet especially for well placed properties in the Charlottesville MSA since the inventory is still low. That change should be making itself known in a couple of quarters as sellers start thinking that perfect timing may be passing them by. In geometric terms we should be heading back down from the peak. We hope for and expect a soft landing due to a more responsible lending environment since 2008 and while buyers may be dealing with historically typical interest rates they should have more inventory and better prices to consider soon.

A responsible lending environment means a softer landing than 2008 and historically typical interest rates.

It’s hard to look forward and predict exactly what the next ten years will bring but if the last
forty mean anything that sine curve will keep on rolling up and down like clockwork.


Happy New Year!

Other Categories




Charlottesville VA Real Estate Market Update

Charlottesville VA Real Estate Market Update

Current mortgage rates for 30-year fixed is 5.65%


Consumers are being stretched thin by inflation, from the gas pump to the grocery store, and are beginning to slow their spending compared to last year.

Mortgage rates are rising at the quickest pace in 40 years, with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reaching the highest level since 2009 last week at 5.53%, as inflation keeps growing and there is speculation about an imminent economic slump.

Experts predict a real estate slowdown in the coming quarters: According to CoreLogic’s research of the country’s top regional housing markets, there are 70 regional housing markets with a greater than 40% chance of seeing home prices decrease in the coming year.

The perfect storm of increased demand due to Covid, a robust stock market, and low real estate inventory fueled a two-year buyer frenzy that saw prices rise 20% in a hot seller’s market; this affected Charlottesville real estate market and Charlottesville realtors as well.

Farm and estate specialists like Charlottesville Country Properties noted renewed appreciation for properties with acreage mirroring the national trend of migration from urban to rural lifestyles, especially from affluent professionals who can now work from home.

Recent mortgage interest rate increases and an unpredictable stock market have slightly tempered the Charlottesville real estate market, which may be a welcome trend for buyers waiting for the market to cool off a little.

We do not expect Charlottesville, VA, real estate prices to appreciate as quickly as they have over the last few years. Still, demand for farms, estates, and land should stay steady due to the work-from-home trend and the proliferation of broadband internet access even in once remote areas.

    Charlottesville VA real estate market trends

    REDFIN – September 2022

    • The median sale price of a home in Charlottesville, VA, was $403K last month, up 2.6% from the previous year.
    • Charlottesville’s average sale price per square foot is $291, up 13.2% from last year.
    • In general, Charlottesville home prices were up 2.6% year over year in July 2022, with a median price of $403K.
    • Homes in Charlottesville sell in 9 days on average, compared to 69 days last year.
    • In July of this year, 64 homes were sold, down from 70 in July the prior year.
    • The number of listings in the Charlottesville, VA, real estate market increased by 51% between July 2022 and August 2022.
    • The median list price in August 2022 was $439,999, while the average listing age was 48 days.
    • In July 2022, 277 homes were sold in Charlottesville, VA, up from 120 the previous year.

    Charlottesville Real Estate

    Call John Ince for information on new listings, price reductions and properties coming soon in the Charlottesville, VA area.

    Sign up here to receive a customized Charlottesville Real Estate Market Report.

    Market update for the Charlottesville real estate market including:  Albemarle County, VA, Orange County, VA, Madison County, VA, Greene County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Louisa County, VA real estate.

    Historic Somerset: A Chance to Own a Piece of History

    Historic Somerset: A Chance to Own a Piece of History

    Historic Somerset: A Rare Opportunity to Own a Piece of HistoryWhen Frascati was completed in 1823 in Orange County, Virginia for Phillip Barbour who had just retired as an Associate Justice of the United States Supreme Court, Somerset was already a pretty good...

    read more
    Frascati Estate for Sale

    Frascati Estate for Sale

    A rare opportunity to acquire a significant historic estate in a superb location just 30 minutes from Charlottesville and the University of Virginia.   The house is described in the Virginia andmarks Registry as well as in the National Register of Historic Places...

    read more
    Magificent New Farm Listing Near Barboursville

    Magificent New Farm Listing Near Barboursville

    For anyone who has been waiting patiently for the perfect property to come on the market, it’s been worth the wait! Stilwin with 183 acres, nestled in a private valley less than 20 minutes from Charlottesville is available for...

    read more
    Elegant short term rental in Somerset!

    Elegant short term rental in Somerset!

    Gaby and I are thrilled to present Maple Crest as a delightful short term rental less than 15 minutes from five wineries, great antiquing in Orange and Gordonsville and just 30 minutes from Charlottesville and UVA. We would love to host you for a weekend or a week....

    read more