It’s easy to look back at market trends and graph exactly how the last 10 years played out. It was a typical first half of a sine curve with a slow but steady start, (post recession), a nice boost in activity as a hot buyers market ate up well priced inventory, (Obama years), and then a wild ride through 2021 as scarce inventory and crazy low interest rates met a surge in demand due to Covid and a hot economy that sent prices through the roof and disappointed buyers gasping for air.
So, here we are, interest rates for a 30 year fixed are about 7.25 today. The change sheet had lots of expired listings, a few price reductions listed and we’re asking each other, What now?
I think it’s safe to say that the boom has happened and we are sitting at the top of the curve right now. Buyers will have to adjust their thinking in terms of loan affordability. Sellers haven’t really felt a slow down yet especially for well placed properties in the Charlottesville MSA since the inventory is still low. That change should be making itself known in a couple of quarters as sellers start thinking that perfect timing may be passing them by. In geometric terms we should be heading back down from the peak. We hope for and expect a soft landing due to a more responsible lending environment since 2008 and while buyers may be dealing with historically typical interest rates they should have more inventory and better prices to consider soon.
It’s hard to look forward and predict exactly what the next ten years will bring but if the last
forty mean anything that sine curve will keep on rolling up and down like clockwork.
Happy New Year!
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